Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.191899 0.215563 0.241138 0.270852 0.304456 0.341313 0.384849
2025-11-23 0.150874 0.181208 0.216354 0.260169 0.313450 0.376296 0.456275
2025-11-30 0.127381 0.162433 0.205664 0.263105 0.337733 0.431825 0.560118
2025-12-07 0.103769 0.139651 0.186475 0.252401 0.343395 0.465384 0.642702
2025-12-14 0.087295 0.123456 0.173169 0.247033 0.354914 0.508134 0.744757
2025-12-21 0.074342 0.110046 0.161547 0.241988 0.365838 0.551519 0.855153
2025-12-28 0.066529 0.102804 0.157556 0.247228 0.392414 0.621677 1.017854
2026-01-04 0.058342 0.093763 0.149497 0.244852 0.406600 0.674648 1.162403
2026-01-11 0.052281 0.087189 0.144311 0.246175 0.426801 0.740286 1.339804
2026-01-18 0.047692 0.082368 0.141262 0.250512 0.452634 0.819349 1.555187
2026-01-25 0.041550 0.074040 0.131091 0.240750 0.451559 0.849752 1.684539
2026-02-01 0.036131 0.066283 0.120899 0.229419 0.445679 0.869960 1.797094
2026-02-08 0.032160 0.060794 0.114351 0.224494 0.452364 0.917494 1.979116
2026-02-15 0.028615 0.055659 0.107813 0.218667 0.456410 0.960603 2.160981
2026-02-22 0.026653 0.053362 0.106495 0.223283 0.483137 1.056257 2.481392
2026-03-01 0.023722 0.048736 0.099897 0.215794 0.482349 1.091469 2.667167
2026-03-08 0.021525 0.045356 0.095441 0.212319 0.490074 1.147494 2.916372
2026-03-15 0.019585 0.042278 0.091233 0.208782 0.497086 1.203076 3.176663
2026-03-22 0.018527 0.040993 0.090768 0.213831 0.525616 1.316366 3.616220
2026-03-29 0.017093 0.038682 0.087700 0.212197 0.537199 1.388680 3.958060
2026-04-05 0.016006 0.037042 0.085976 0.213629 0.556968 1.486197 4.395858
2026-04-12 0.015173 0.035899 0.085283 0.217579 0.584152 1.609009 4.939497
2026-04-19 0.013722 0.033087 0.080193 0.209316 0.576425 1.632127 5.175666